A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
